Wed. Feb 21st, 2024

Prof. ST Hsieh

Director, US-China Energy Industry Forum


[email protected]

April 4, 2023

It is clear that the US is the dominant superpower today, but the US does not have infinite bandwidth to deal with every issue of the world at one time.

Management of COVID-19 Pandemic is an important case study. The US practice has been criticized for its inefficiency, just look at the world record number of causalities. The US also adopted QE policy to maintain the economic growth during the pandemic, but it is paying a price now on how to manage inflation. China, on the other hand, took the “zero-COVID” restrictions and almost closed her borders for three years. China’s overall causalities due to COVID-19 pandemic is much smaller than the US. While China’s economy suffered during the pandemic, it is recovering. The COVID-19 crisis is not over yet, whether the US performed better than China will have to be settled later.

The U.S.’s central role on the world stage is being watched closely, not just by China but EU and Russia too. Four years of Trump administration had greatly damaged the global image of the US and ploraized the US society. Even today, Trump is not “finished” yet and the US has to face this reality. The Biden administration attempted to reclaim the global leadership since 2021, but its performance is not good enough. The world today is full of new and old challenges: hot spots are over all the places. Biden’s approval rating in the US is in the low 30’s, but the 2024 general election in the US has already heated up: the US will be consumed by domestic politics.

The world, not just China, is watching the US closely and should have a plan B after November 2024.

China is not only asserting itself geopolitically but openly questioning the U.S.’s central role on the world stage

Published: April 4, 2023 at 11:54 a.m. ET

Tanner Brown

Beijing’s new assertiveness comes against a backdrop of three years of so-called zero-COVID restrictions that saw the country close itself off from the world.

It’s been a busy few months for China — and sobering ones for the United States.

Last month, the world’s rising superpower and second-largest economy held its biggest political gathering of the year, cementing leader Xi Jinping’s controversial third term and ushering in loyalists to key high-level positions.

Days later, Beijing announced it had brokered a deal that will see Persian Gulf rivals Saudi Arabia and Iran normalize relations, a shocking diplomatic coup in an area long dominated by the United States. Xi was reportedly personally involved in the negotiations.

“This landmark agreement has the potential to transform the Middle East by realigning its major powers,” the journal Foreign Affairs declared, adding that the gambit is “weaving the region into China’s global ambitions. For Beijing, the announcement was a great leap forward in its rivalry with Washington.”

But the biggest news came two weeks ago, when Xi flew to Moscow and met with Vladimir Putin, just days after the International Criminal Court in the Hague issued an arrest warrant for the Russian president on charges of war crimes in Russia’s year-old invasion of Ukraine.

‘China has seen a space where it is hard for the West to really block off — heading into issues [that the Western powers] feel are too intractable or too toxic to touch and trying to demonstrate that there might be a different way to mediate or involve yourself in these problems.’

— Kerry Brown, King’s College London

“There are changes coming that haven’t happened in 100 years,” Xi told Putin as the self-described “dear friends” concluded their talks. “When we are together, we are driving these changes.”

China’s assertiveness comes after three years of COVID restrictions that saw the country close off from the world in an attempt to tame the virus, a policy that was suddenly scrapped in December.

“It has sunk in that China needs friends. It has ended up too isolated, and that has cut across the narrative of the Xi third term, which was due to be somewhat more sunny,” Kerry Brown, director of the Lau China Institute at King’s College London, told MarketWatch.

Others agreed. “China certainly is exiting a period of diplomatic isolation during the height of COVID,” said Victor Shih, the Ho Miu Lam chair in China and Pacific relations at the University of California, San Diego, and an expert on Chinese elite politics.

That exit has been swift, with Beijing taking concrete steps toward a belief that previously had been mostly rhetoric — that the U.S.-led global system is not the only path.

“China has seen a space where it is hard for the West to really block off — heading into issues [that the Western powers] feel are too intractable or too toxic to touch and trying to demonstrate that there might be a different way to mediate or involve yourself in these problems,” Brown said.

Those sentiments are increasingly pervasive across China, particularly in government, academia and media.

“The U.S., which is accustomed to enjoying the spotlight, is now puzzled for it never thought that one day China would be more popular than it,” state tabloid Global Times said in a front-page story last Thursday.

Wang Yong, director of the Center for International Political Economy and the Center for American Studies at Peking University, told MarketWatch, “The rise of China as a great power is facing an increasingly complicated situation, mainly because U.S. elites judge China as the foremost strategic and systemic threat, and attack China’s development.”

Wang highlighted concerns over Washington’s policy toward self-ruled Taiwan, which Beijing claims as a renegade province.

In fact, Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen is stopping over in the U.S. this week after visits to the island’s few remaining allies in Central America. Beijing has threatened for weeks against her being welcomed by any high-level American officials.

Those threats turned to ire on Monday, when Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy said he would meet with Tsai on Wednesday in California. China said this could lead to “serious confrontation” and that Beijing would “resolutely fight back” — without giving specifics.

‘Why is it assumed we live in a U.S. world?’

— Alan Ma, graduate student, Tsinghua University.

“Gradually deviating from the past promise of ‘one China,’ promoting Taiwan independence and using Taiwan to contain China’s development — these could trigger a China-U.S. war,” Peking University’s Wang said from Beijing.

“Why isn’t it China’s time to lead? Why is it assumed we live in a U.S. world?” asked 27-year-old Alan Ma, a graduate student in politics at Beijing’s Tsinghua University.

Other areas are reaching heightened levels of tension. China’s military said last month it drove out an American destroyer ship that had “illegally” entered the South China Sea. And the CEO of Chinese-owned video sensation TikTok appeared before U.S. lawmakers in hopes of preventing an American ban on the app over national-security concerns.

But China’s rise, however rapid, must be put in a realistic context, experts said.

“I don’t think that we can say China has entered a new period as a global power until it has deployed large troop contingents overseas on its own,” said UC San Diego’s Shih.

Tanner Brown covers China for MarketWatch and Barron’s.

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