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Prof. ST Hsieh

Director, US-China Energy Industry Forum


[email protected]

November 4, 2022

The Ukraine war is getting more dangerous as nuclear weapons could be used. It is already a global crisis that should be managed by all responsible parties. “U.S. officials publicly vow to support Kyiv with massive sums of aid “for as long as it takes” does not have the full support of US public and many major world powers.

It is a puzzle that the message “Only diplomacy can end Ukraine war”,which was delivered to Ukraine President Zelenskyy this summer, is made public right now as winter is at the doorstep of Europe. There was no report on how Zelensky reacted to the proposal to settle the war via diplomacy. Of course, resolving the nine-month-old war is complicated but a cease fire is critical, not for Ukraine alone, but also for the stability of Europe as well as global peace. But on Friday, November 5th, Zelensky insisted that No dialogue with Moscow possible under current conditions.

On the other hand, it is clear that Ukraine war is a proxy war between the US and Russia, or more bluntly a proxy war between Biden and Putin so only the US can initiate any cease fire process with Russia. But the US midterm election is scheduled for November 8th and Democratic led by Biden will suffer a loss. However, the US political dust will be settled by next January after the new US congress is sworn in. How will Europeans survive this winter?

Jake Sullivan’s statement to Kiev that “‘unwavering’ support to continue” is about face. The US public opinion for unconditionally supporting the Ukraine war is already shifting. If Biden can not offer an exit strategy for ending the Ukraine war, there is no reason for the US to keep writing blank checks to Zelenskyy. Finally, Europeans are exhausted by the endless Ukraine war already. The Biden administration will not be able to count on the Europeans to keep the Ukraine war going without any exit strategy.

As usual, the Biden Administration sent ambiguous message privately: asks Ukraine to show Russia it’s open to talks. But Biden does not have a real exit strategy, only short-term political maneuvers which will cause more sufferings of Europeans including Ukrainians.

Global statesmen: Only diplomacy can end Ukraine war

EDITH M. LEDERER Fri, November 4, 2022 at 2:37 PM

UNITED NATIONS (AP) — Only dialogue and diplomacy can end the devastating war in Ukraine, with total victory on the battlefield impossible for either warring party, members of a group of prominent former world leaders founded by Nelson Mandela said Friday.

The group, known as The Elders, delivered that message to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, telling him on a visit to Kyiv this summer that he must start considering a way out of the conflict, said group chairwoman Mary Robinson, former Irish president.

“We need to encourage more thinking about how it will end in order to get the idea that this needs to end, as opposed to increasing the military arsenal on both sides and the devastation to the population in Ukraine,” said Robinson, who also served as U.N. high commissioner for human rights.

The Elders have condemned Russia’s Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine as “a flagrant violation of the United Nations Charter and a reckless, unjustifiable act of aggression that threatens to destabilize world peace and security.” In late September, The Elders also condemned Russia’s illegal annexation of four Ukrainian regions and defended Ukraine’s right to defend its territory and sovereignty.

Zeid Ra’ad al-Hussein, a previous U.N. human rights commissioner, agreed that diplomacy and negotiation were the only way out of the war, but he stressed that did not mean asking Ukraine to cede its sovereignty, since it was the victim of unprovoked Russian aggression.

He hinted that a settlement of the conflict could instead involve Russia receiving a concession “from another direction,” a possible reference to NATO, or one of its key members. Russian President Vladimir Putin has long complained the Western alliance has been pushing closer to its borders, a reality he has cited in justifying the invasion.

Former Mexican president Ernesto Zedillo said that despite economic sanctions imposed by the European Union and the United States “the flow of resources to finance this war has continued,” including the huge influx of oil revenue to Russia.

“I think there should be less hypocrisy about the way in which this bellicose economic war is being fought,” he said.

UPDATE 1-White House’s Sullivan visits Kyiv, says ‘unwavering’ support to continue

KYIV, Nov 4 (Reuters) – U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said during a visit to Kyiv on Friday that the United States’ support for Ukraine would remain “unwavering and unflinching” following next Tuesday’s midterm congressional elections.

“We fully intend to ensure that the resources are there as necessary and that we’ll get votes from both sides of the aisle to make that happen,” Sullivan told reporters during a briefing at the Ukrainian presidential administration.

Some Republicans have called for U.S. aid to Kyiv to be scaled back if they win control of the U.S. Congress in the Nov. 8 vote. Last month, top House Republican Kevin McCarthy said Americans should not “write a blank check” for Ukraine.

But Sullivan, who met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and his chief of staff, Andriy Yermak, said President Joe Biden was committed to bipartisan cooperation “under any scenario” to keep economic, humanitarian and security aid flowing.

“I’m confident that… U.S. support for Ukraine will be unwavering and unflinching, and I don’t say that lightly,” he said.

Yermak said Friday’s meeting with Sullivan had been “very important” and that Ukraine’s partners “totally understand our situation”.

U.S. privately asks Ukraine to show Russia it’s open to talks -Washington Post

Sat, November 5, 2022 at 4:43 PM

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The Biden administration is privately encouraging Ukraine’s leaders to signal an openness to negotiate with Russia and drop their public refusal to engage in peace talks unless President Vladimir Putin is removed from power, the Washington Post reported on Saturday.

The paper quoted unnamed people familiar with the discussions as saying that the request by American officials was not aimed at pushing Ukraine to the negotiating table, but a calculated attempt to ensure Kyiv maintains the support of other nations facing constituencies wary of fueling a war for many years to come.

It said the discussions illustrated the complexity of the Biden administration’s position on Ukraine, as U.S. officials publicly vow to support Kyiv with massive sums of aid “for as long as it takes” while hoping for a resolution to the eight-month conflict that has taken a big toll on the world economy and triggered fears of nuclear war.

The paper said U.S. officials shared the assessment of their Ukrainian counterparts that Putin is not for now serious about negotiations, but acknowledged that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s ban on talks with him had generated concern in parts of Europe, Africa and Latin America, where the war’s effects on costs of food and fuel are felt most sharply.

“Ukraine fatigue is a real thing for some of our partners,” the Post quoted one unnamed U.S. official as saying.

(Reporting by David Brunnstrom; Editing by Daniel Wallis)

No dialogue with Moscow possible under current conditions, says Zelenskyy

Fri, November 4, 2022 at 10:42 AM

“If the Russians retreat and admit that they have made a terrible mistake — if one could talk about any mistake against the backdrop of all these developments — then we will be able to find a format for dialogue,” the President said.

The Ukrainian president on Oct. 4 enacted a decision taken by the National Security and Defense Council to outlaw any negotiations with Russian dictator Vladimir Putin. The President’s Office said that Kyiv would be ready for negotiations when the Russian leader changes.

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