Prof. ST Hsieh
Director, US-China Energy Industry Forum
January 8, 2024
The US, especially under President Biden, is the most vocal defender of global freedom and democracy. The US has engaged in many foreign wars as the freedom fighter and holds the global standard for democracy.
But somehow, as the following news report acknowledges that the US would be the “top risk to world” after the general election in 2024. It is because, as of now, the top two contenders for the next US president, whether Biden or Trump wins: “institutions of the most powerful democracy certain to take a beating!”
The 2024 general election process in the US is nothing new and it is a US domestic issue. However, the top two contenders are unique: they represent two very different political parties, but the partisan politics now is unprecedented, because US society is bitterly divided. There seems to be no middle ground for any issue, no compromise until the last minute. Zero Sum mentality is overwhelming.
The two top candidates, both are also one-term presidents, do not seem to accept the responsibility that the US majority cannot take either one as our next President again, enough damages have been done since there were in the White House. Further, they both need geriatrician’s care and would not survive in the AI world.
Because the US is still the largest economy in the world with the mightiest military force, so a dysfunctional US government under either Biden or Trump will be of consequences for the world. As of now, the US is actively engaged two bloody wars: the proxy war in Ukraine and the Israel-Hamas conflict. Both wars can trigger nuclear confrontations. Then the world economy has not fully recovered from the COVID global pandemic and the wars, any intentional or accidental mishap in the US could mean a global crisis.
The world, including the US, would be much better of without both Biden and Trump active in US politics. If one believes in miracle, then pray for Biden’s volunteer withdraw from his reelection bid and the US legal system will find Trump guilty as charged so losing his bid for Trump II.
US election top risk to world no matter who wins: consultancy
Mon, January 8, 2024 at 9:47 AM PST
The US presidential election will pose the greatest political risk to the world in 2024 no matter who wins, with institutions of the most powerful democracy certain to take a beating, the Eurasia Group said Monday.
In an annual report, the political risk consultancy said that the November 5 election “will test American democracy to a degree the nation hasn’t experienced in 150 years,” a reference to the country’s civil war.
“The United States is already the world’s most divided and dysfunctional advanced industrial democracy. The 2024 election will exacerbate this problem no matter who wins,” it said.
“With the outcome of the vote essentially a coin toss (at least for now), the only certainty is continued damage to America’s social fabric, political institutions and international standing.”
If Donald Trump — currently the Republican front-runner — again loses to President Joe Biden, the real estate mogul will likely once more allege massive fraud and “incite widespread intimidation campaigns” against election officials and workers, the report said.
The United States in a Biden second term could also face an “unprecedented political crisis” if Trump goes to jail on one of myriad cases in which he is charged, although large-scale violence remains unlikely, it said.
Biden has cast his campaign as a struggle to save democracy against Trump, whose supporters attacked the US Capitol on January 6, 2021, in hopes of stopping the formalization of Biden’s victory.
If he loses, Biden would be expected to concede. But many Democrats will also view Trump as illegitimate and some will refuse to confirm his victory citing the constitutional prohibition against anyone who has “engaged in insurrection” taking office, the Eurasia Group said.
Meanwhile, a second-term Trump would be expected to “weaponize” the US government to go after rivals and crush dissent, it added.
The Eurasia Group ranked the violence in the Middle East as the second greatest global risk, with the Israel-Hamas war “likely to be only the first phase in an expanding conflict in 2024.”
The third greatest risk was Ukraine, with the study predicting the country in 2024 will in effect become partitioned with Kyiv struggling to retake remaining areas seized by Russia.
It said Ukraine would face another major blow if the United States elects Trump, who opposes the billions of dollars in US aid to Kyiv.