Prof. ST Hsieh
Director, US-China Energy Industry Forum
626-376-7460
February 1, 2023
Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24, 2022; the ground battles are getting intense as Putin readies a major offense. Ukraine’s allies are promising heavy battlefield tanks to Ukraine. But it will be a few months before these tanks arrive in Ukraine. Zelenskyy has also asked for modern jet fighters such as F-16, the President Biden said “no.” Hardware is useless or wasteful, if the soldiers are not trained well.
Then there is also the “anti-corruption war” in Ukraine, but it is apparently due to the pressure from outside. Corruptions in Ukraine have been rampart, even President Zelenskyy himself was implicated before Russian invasion. Ukraine is under “marshal law” so how this anti-corruption war will be carried out fairly and successfully remain to be seen.
Most crucial war facing Ukraine, and Zelenskyy, is the fight for sustain public support. By and large, Zelenskyy has been successful in getting almost everything that he has asked so far. He also holds his uncompromisingly hardline position against Russia. But the war is not going to end anytime soon, because Zelenskyy’s terms of ending the war are not tenable. Zelenskyy is popular and supported in Ukraine, however, his popularity is under scrutiny around the world. Especially, the west allies have provided unprecedently large sums of resources while the global economy has been bogged down by this war. That means almost everyone around the world is paying for his war against Putin. Zelenskyy has to show us that he is able to end the war soon.
U.S. cautions Ukraine on aid as public support slips
Washington Post: The big idea, February 1, 2023
Top officials from the Departments of Defense and State as well as the U.S. Agency for International Development just wrapped up a visit to Ukraine, delivering a warning of sorts about American aid at a time when Republicans are driving a drop in public support for Kyiv.
During their trip last week, leaders from the offices of inspector general from all three entities delivered a message that might be translated as: Be prepared to account for everything we give you. And keep fighting corruption.
Tracking American military and economic assistance and helping Ukraine expunge rot from its government aren’t new initiatives. Both have gone on for at least a decade. But let’s just say the Republican takeover of the House hasn’t exactly diminished the urgency of knowing what went where.
The official acting as the State Department’s inspector general, Diana Shaw said in a joint statement the trip “afforded us the opportunity to directly communicate American taxpayer expectations of transparency and accountability to the Ukrainian government.”
“The importance of that message cannot be understated,” Shaw continued. The State Department, working with the Pentagon and USAID, “is committed to rooting out any fraud, waste, or corrupt activities that would divert the assistance so pivotal to Ukraine’s ultimate success.”
The official acting as the USAID inspector general, Nicole Angarella, said in the same joint statement: “It is critical for the American people to have confidence in the integrity of taxpayer dollars sent to support Ukraine and its people.”
Top officials from the Departments of Defense and State as well as the U.S. Agency for International Development just wrapped up a visit to Ukraine, delivering a warning of sorts about American aid at a time when Republicans are driving a drop in public support for Kyiv.
During their trip last week, leaders from the offices of inspector general from all three entities delivered a message that might be translated as: Be prepared to account for everything we give you. And keep fighting corruption.
Tracking American military and economic assistance and helping Ukraine expunge rot from its government aren’t new initiatives. Both have gone on for at least a decade. But let’s just say the Republican takeover of the House hasn’t exactly diminished the urgency of knowing what went where.
The official acting as the State Department’s inspector general, Diana Shaw said in a joint statement the trip “afforded us the opportunity to directly communicate American taxpayer expectations of transparency and accountability to the Ukrainian government.”
“The importance of that message cannot be understated,” Shaw continued. The State Department, working with the Pentagon and USAID, “is committed to rooting out any fraud, waste, or corrupt activities that would divert the assistance so pivotal to Ukraine’s ultimate success.”
The official acting as the USAID inspector general, Nicole Angarella, said in the same joint statement: “It is critical for the American people to have confidence in the integrity of taxpayer dollars sent to support Ukraine and its people.”
“The OIG leaders also underscored the need for independence, transparency, and accountability in Ukrainian institutions, including having adequate systems, staffing, and resources in place to ensure the integrity of government operations,” the statement said. That includes anti-corruption efforts.
And the Americans “emphasized the importance of receiving timely and transparent access to information from the government of Ukraine to enhance the OIGs’ ability to conduct independent audits and investigations related to U.S.-funded programs and operations.”
That or, one supposes, their ability to answer questions from Congress.
THE HOUSE GOP FACTOR
There are a lot of mechanisms, both in government and the private sector, already in place for tracking American and allied aid. The inspectors general — you can think of them as internal investigators — laid out many of them earlier this month.
And in a recent conversation with The Daily 202, Sen. Chris Coons (D-Del.) said he was not especially worried about American weapons ending up on the black market “in no small part because the Ukrainians are using everything we send them.”
“I have conveyed repeatedly and directly to Ukrainian leaders concerns that we must continue to strengthen the transparency and accountability measures for all American aid going to Ukraine,” Coons said. (The U.S. Embassy in Kyiv and Poland-based U.S. forces are racking weapons and aid, he noted.)
But the context for the OIGs’ visit includes mounting opposition from Republicans to sending more assistance to help Ukraine beat back Russia. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) warned last year the GOP would not write a “blank check” to Kyiv.
Former president Donald Trump — perhaps diminished in his control of the GOP, but surely not dismissed — has repeatedly expressed admiration for Russian President Vladimir Putin. The Trump wing of the party has been noticeably more opposed to Ukraine aid.
SHIFTING SENTIMENT
My colleague Meryl Kornfield documented on Tuesday some of the domestic political shifts in attitudes toward assistance.
The Pew Research Center’s latest polling found “[a]s Russia’s invasion approaches its first anniversary, Americans largely back some sort of aid, but support for the Biden administration’s approach is fading, especially among Republicans,” she reported.
More findings from Meryl:
- Four in 10 Americans approve of Biden’s approach.
- About a quarter of Americans say too much aid is flowing to Ukraine, “up six percentage points since September and 19 points since March, shortly after the war began.”
- 31 percent say the United States is giving the right amount.
- One-fifth would support additional aid, while 20 percent said they were not sure.
“The share of Americans who believe the United States has provided too much support through economic assistance and weapons is greater among Republicans, 40 percent, even as GOP leaders remain divided,” Meryl reported.
We won’t really know how much congressional support has ebbed until the next vote. But Biden hasn’t slowed aid to Ukraine since the midterm election. Quite the opposite. And in this conflict, yesterday’s red line can become tomorrow’s green light.
Updates
Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Tuesday that Kyiv is preparing new reforms as it prepares for a summit with top EU officials at the end of the week.
In his nightly address, Zelenskyy said the reforms “will change the social, legal and political reality in many ways, making it more human, transparent and effective. But these details will be announced later,” he added.
Security services searched the home of one of Ukraine’s most prominent billionaires, moving against a figure once seen as President Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s sponsor in what the authorities called a war-time anti-corruption purge.
The SBU said it had uncovered the embezzlement of more than $1 billion at Ukraine’s biggest oil company, Ukrnafta, and its biggest refiner, Ukrtatnafta. Kolomoiskiy, who has long denied wrongdoing, once held stakes in both firms, which Zelenskiy ordered seized by the state in November under martial law.