Prof. ST Hsieh
Director, US-China Energy Industry Forum
626-376-7460
November 19, 2023
The proxy war in Ukraine should end as soon as possible, but first Ukrainians must get rid of the Comedian turned politician: President Zelenskyy. He has no qualification for any public services, he should have stayed on the stage as a comedian.
Of course, Ukrainians only have themselves to blame, because they voted for him to the office of Presidency in 2019. It was a mistake, but the most sericeous mistake was allowing him to fight the proxy war with Russia. Ukraine is no match with Russia, but Zelenskyy was convinced by the US led allies that they will support him to the end.
Certainly, these allies provided Ukraine with tons of money and military hard wares, and they imposed harsh but ineffective sanctions against Russia. Zelenskyy became am instant global VIP, he travelled around the capitals demanding unconditional supports. His promise is that “give me whatever I asked, and we (means Ukraine) will defeat Russia quickly.” He is no military genius but he is a good PR man: he has not reported to the public Ukraine’s causality figures. The only news that we get from him is how badly Russians are beaten by the brave Ukrainians.
Now the proxy war is almost two years old, the mirage of Zelenskyy as a world hero who would single handedly take down Putin is collapsing fast.
Many of the issues reflected at the end of this attachments, such as conscription to replace lost soldiers etc., are not new issues: Zelenskyy should have had a plan before he engaged Ukraine to the proxy war more than 20 months ago. All his orders to fire and replace a large number of frontline commanders now show that Zelenskyy as an incompetent commander in chief who appointed these commanders in the first place. His actions might be justified but who will be qualified to replace these dismissed commanders?
It is very disturbing that “Zelensky urges international community to send signal to Russia!” Somehow, is he not man enough to talk with Putin anymore? If so, he should leave Ukraine alone…
As the war grinds on, Ukraine needs more troops. Not everyone is ready to enlist
By Maria Kostenko, Daria Tarasova-Markina, Yulia Kesaieva, Olga Voitivych, Svitlana Vlasova and Victoria Butenko
Published 12:00 AM EST, Sun November 19, 2023
CNN —
On the global stage, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has been consistently on message: In visits to Washington and other Western capitals, he has focused on keeping Kyiv supplied with more advanced arms, ammunition and financing.
At home, however, he faces a human resources problem. The war is approaching the end of its second year, and Ukraine’s military needs more manpower to sustain a bloody war of attrition against Russia, a country with more than three times the population of Ukraine.
In a recent essay, Ukraine’s top military commander, Valery Zaluzhny acknowledged that training and recruiting troops was becoming a serious challenge.
“The prolonged nature of the war, limited opportunities for the rotation of soldiers on the line of contact, gaps in legislation that seem to legally evade mobilization, significantly reduce the motivation of citizens to serve with the military,” he said.
The essay acknowledged a bleak reality: Ukraine needs more people in uniform, and it needs them now.
So, how serious is Ukraine’s mobilization challenge? The issue is clouded, in part, by official secrecy. Kyiv does not publicly disclose its manpower targets; nor does it reveal the total number of dead and wounded, although casualties on both sides since February 2022 are estimated to number in the hundreds of thousands.
Ukraine fills its ranks with volunteers but also has a system of conscription that allows the state to draft men of military age.
After Russia’s full-scale invasion, Ukraine imposed martial law, under which all males between the ages of 18 and 60 were considered liable for military service and could be mobilized unless they were eligible for a deferment. In 2023, the rules of military registration were updated to include women. But the measures stopped short of full conscription.
Martial law introduced draconian travel restrictions. Men between 18 and 60 are generally barred from exiting the country, although there are a wide range of exemptions, covering everything from single parents of young children to professional athletes.
While it is difficult to get an exact portrait of how far Ukrainians are responding to the call to serve in the military, officials have acknowledged publicly that evading military service and enforcing mobilization rules are an issue.
At a briefing on November 9, State Border Service of Ukraine spokesperson Andriy Demchenko said that over the last 10 months, 43,000 citizens of Ukraine were refused exit at the border.
“The reasons were different, but mostly because they did not qualify,” he said.
The war is sometimes simplified as an industrial contest: Ukraine’s Western backers are racing to produce ammunition for Kyiv, as Moscow ramps up domestic production of artillery shells and seeks fresh supplies from North Korea. But it’s also a recruitment contest against Russia.
Mobilization is a matter of survival for Ukraine. A long-awaited counteroffensive across a broad front has failed to yield any major breakthroughs on the battlefield, and Western support is at risk of wavering, especially as events in Israel and Gaza in the last month divert attention from the prolonged conflict in Europe.
CNN spoke with several individuals of fighting age to get snapshots of their motivations to fight – or to avoid enlistment.
Summary of Interviews are condensed and edited for length and clarity. Some of those interviewed did not want to give their full names.
“If the war continues… as it is today, there is no way to avoid conscription.”
Maj. Viktor Kysil serves with the “Khartiia” brigade. Until recently, he was involved in recruiting for his unit.
All those who wanted to serve voluntarily have already served somewhere. There are still people who do not want to serve of their own free will. If a person hasn’t come under the attention of the military enlistment office by 16-18 months into the war, then he or she obviously hopes that he or she won’t be drafted into the army for the next 18 months.
If the war continues with the same intensity as it is today, there is no way to avoid conscription.
“Civilians have become too relaxed.”
Mark Holovei, 29, works as a civilian volunteer supporting the military. He is willing to be mobilized.
In general, I cannot be drafted due to my health problems. I have chronic polycystic kidney disease. It is not treatable. I’m on a special diet and have to be admitted to the hospital every six months as a preventive measure. I also have type 2 diabetes. I have to take medication all the time.
Civilians have become too relaxed. The dance clubs are working, night taxis are working. Until there’s a missile attack on their city, people tend to forget that we’re actually in the middle of the war.
‘What has this country given me?’
Yevhen, 32, is an IT specialist. He plans to challenge any draft summons.
“I think that everything that happens with mobilization is illegal and unfair. Therefore, I have a negative attitude to everything that is happening. Of course, it is not about supporting Russia, it is clear that they attacked us. But… if I get a draft notice tomorrow, I will consult a lawyer and challenge it.
“Everyone talks about responsibilities. But I have a question: What has this country given me that I owe it anything? My parents paid for my education, although I was an excellent student and had to study on a budget. It turns out that no one adheres to the law, but everyone talks about obligations.
‘It is not the steel that wins, it is the spirit’
“I understood that (this) would be a rather protracted conflict, with guys coming to the front, gaining experience, but the enemy would work in the same way. That is why the number of professional troops participating in the fighting will be constantly growing, both on our side and on the enemy’s side.
“We need to focus on the long game. Not in the sense that I am ready to lay down my life, but in the sense that I will improve my skills from month to month, year to year. That’s why I don’t regret coming here now. I see a job for me.
“The role of people in this war is crucial. As you know, it is not steel that wins, it is the spirit that wins. The spirit, the intellect.”
‘I strengthen the GDP of this country’
Vlad, 30, an IT worker, wants to avoid conscription.
I think that Ukraine, unfortunately, is not ready to fight Russia. We do not have the strength, money or weapons to do so. We were not prepared for it at all. Who is to blame for this is another question. Russia has strengthened its position in the east, so it is a senseless killing of our citizens.
I don’t want to go to fight. I am neither morally nor physically ready. I’ll try to avoid getting a draft notice. If I get it, the company will try to organize that I will be in the rear.
I believe that I help the country, I get my salary from outside and bring foreign currency to the territory of Ukraine. So I strengthen the GDP of the country. I am more useful in this than in the war.
‘They do not realize what they are getting into’
Dmytro Kostyuk, an army lieutenant is currently undergoing rehabilitation after being wounded in July. He is willing to return to active service.
My platoon was short of people, so we were replenished with foreign fighters, 12 in total. For some it was the romance of war, for others it was a professional activity. Many of such people are now coming to Ukraine because it is a good line in their resume. As a rule, they do not realize what they are getting into.
The way it (mobilization) is done now – when they try to force someone to join, the way they hand out draft notices is very bad. For example, I am a platoon commander, why do I need a person who does not want to join the army?
I don’t think very highly of such people (draft evaders), but everyone has their own way. It’s hard to judge someone without knowing their situation.
Not everyone can serve, someone has to hold the notorious ‘economic front.’ We are stuck in this war and we need to replace people.
Ukraine war latest: Zelensky replaces Medical Forces Commander
Alexander Khrebet, The Kyiv Independent news desk
Sun, November 19, 2023 at 2:21 PM PST
Zelenskiy calls for rapid operations changes for soldiers, sacks commander
Reuters
Sun, November 19, 2023 at 1:15 PM PST·
Zelensky fires foreign intelligence service official
The Kyiv Independent news desk
Fri, November 17, 2023 at 1:27 PM PST
Zelensky urges international community to send signal to Russia
Rachel Amran, The Kyiv Independent news desk
Sun, November 19, 2023 at 3:57 PM PST