Fri. Mar 1st, 2024

Prof. ST Hsieh

Director, US-China Energy Industry Forum


[email protected]

December 16, 2023

The next US general election voting date is November 8, 2024, less than 11 months away. It is clear now the election will feature the rematch of Joe Biden and Donald Trump, both seeking reelections, and both are very senior. Further, Trump is leading Biden in most of the polls. Trump and Biden are two very different politicians, in term of personality and backgrounds.

In fact, many voters would prefer a choice different than a re-match of these two candidates. Unfortunately, we are stuck as of now.

Recently US society and politics are bifurcated to the extreme that sounds like reconciliation is out of the question. It means that there is really no winner in the next election: the election will be close, and the winner will be completely rejected by about 50% of the population! US democracy will be in danger in 2024.

The US case is even more precarious, not only the newly elected President, head of the Execution Branch, will not commend the respect of most people, the Senate and the Congress could also be divided with different parties from the Executive Branch. We already have some taste of this divided house such as constant threat of federal government shutdowns: the next deadline is January 19, 2024.

The US judicial system used to be well respected and independent. But now it is also politicized and fragmented. Even the US Supreme Court is a suspect: some check and balance is needed.

With all these domestic fundamental challenges, the risk for the world is that: a very divided US is dedicated to be the global leader.

Donald Trump is now the GOP establishment

Analysis by Harry Enten, CNN Published 9:30 AM EST, Sat December 16, 2023

When you think of Donald Trump’s relationship with the Republican Party, some of the first words that may come to mind are “insurgent” and “anti-establishment.” After all, the businessman and former reality television star was able to win the 2016 nomination with little backing from GOP members of Congress and governors.

But that was then, and the landscape today – less than a month from the 2024 Iowa caucuses – is very different. Trump isn’t an insurgent any longer.

In fact, a look at the data reveals that Trump now is the establishment.

About 100 members of Congress and governors have backed Trump. House Speaker Mike Johnson has endorsed the former president, and his predecessor Kevin McCarthy has said he’ll support Trump.

Trump is doing considerably better in endorsements than the two most recent other GOP nominees before him (John McCain and Mitt Romney). That’s notable because both men were part of the GOP establishment that tried to stop Trump in the past and whom Trump has attacked.

For 2024, neither DeSantis nor Haley are anywhere close to Trump in the endorsement race. DeSantis has only about a combined seven governors and members of Congress behind him, while Haley has two, including Sununu.

Even if you put Haley and DeSantis together, Trump has about 10 times as many endorsements.

History tells us the large number of endorsements is good news for Trump. In 2016, he won the Republican nomination without procuring the most endorsements before the Iowa caucuses.

But endorsements aren’t the only way Trump’s 2024 campaign seems to be much more establishment-oriented than his 2016 bid.

Trump is the overwhelming fundraising leader on the GOP side this time. His political operation pulled in over $45 million in the most recent quarter. DeSantis and Haley were way back with hauls of about $15 million and $11 million respectively.

Trump shed that insurgent mantle once he entered the general election in 2016, and he’s maintained it ever since.

Today, Trump looks a lot more like Jeb Bush, who, when taking into account the super PAC supporting him, was the GOP fundraising leader in the 2016 presidential primary. Bush, like McCain and Romney, was an ardent Trump critic. Trump, in turn, loved to go after the former Florida governor.

Even in the polls, Trump is stronger than his rivals among the group that is most normally associated with the establishment: White voters with at least a college degree.

Trump garnered 41% of the vote among this group in a Monmouth University poll released earlier this month. DeSantis, his closest competitor, was at just 24% with these voters.

Trump’s advantage extends not just to those with a college degree but to those with a postgraduate degree too – the educational group he did worst with in 2016. A recent Pew Research Center poll found him up with these voters too.

The bottom line is that there really aren’t any real weaknesses in Trump’s support at this point. He was able to win in 2016 despite not having the support of the establishment or the most money in the race.

This time around, Trump has both and remains well-positioned to cruise in the 2024 Republican contest.

Democrats, Republicans agree democracy could be at risk in 2024: Survey

Lauren Irwin

Fri, December 15, 2023 at 7:19 AM PST

Both Democrats and Republicans seem to agree about one thing: Democracy could be at risk depending on who wins the 2024 elections.

Sixty-two percent of voters think democracy could be at risk depending on the outcome, according to a survey from The Associated Press and NORC Center for Public Affairs Research released Friday.

Voters on each side of the aisle believe the other party’s front-runner for the 2024 presidential election poses a risk to the health of democracy.

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